Article by Greg Brown, courtesy of The Australian
17.03.2025
Labor will fail to meet key targets from the energy policy it took to the 2022 election, energy experts say, after the party removed a link to the modelling from its website that underpins its pledge to lower carbon emissions by 43 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.
Leading energy expert Bruce Mountain said the Powering Australia Plan modelling commissioned by Labor was “not worth the paper it was written on”, with the Albanese government on track to fail in its pledge to lower electricity prices by $275 by 2025, to generate 82 per cent of power by renewables by 2030 and create hundreds of thousands of jobs because of access to “abundant, cheap electricity”.
Experts have also dismissed the document’s claim that Labor’s policies would lead to electric cars making up 89 per cent of new car sales by 2030, while casting doubt on green hydrogen contributing to emissions reductions by the end of the decade with a sector workforce of nearly 1000.
As Jim Chalmers on Monday fell short of committing to lower power prices in the next term of a Labor governmentof committing to lower power prices in the next term of a Labor government, experts urged the Albanese government to admit it would not meet the modelling’s claim of reducing electricity bills by $378 of 2021 levels by 2030.
Mr Mountain, the director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, said he did not believe Labor was on track to meet its 43 per cent emissions target under Paris.
“I don’t think it is on track at all,” he said. “The easiest sector we know of to get emission reductions is the power sector and that has been struggling enormously.
“In all the other sectors of the economy, they are nowhere near the claims that they said. So if you can’t do it in electricity and you are not making (enough) progress in the other sectors, things are not looking good.”
Grattan Institute director of energy Tony Wood said he “couldn’t see how you could get those numbers” when Labor took ownership of the modelling conducted by RepuTex before the 2022 election. “Governments that promise to reduce your power bills are making a foolish political mistake,” he said.
While Mr Wood said he did not think the 82 per cent renewables target would be met, he said it was possible the broader 43 per cent emissions reduction target could be reached.
Nearly a year before the 2022 election, Anthony Albanese told The Australian his energy policy would see central and north Queensland become a manufacturing powerhouse in a low carbon economy, with Labor’s modelling claiming that more than 300,000 jobs would be created because of lower electricity costs.
“The real job creation that can occur with renewables is by lowering energy costs – you make the costs of manufacturing cheaper,” he said in July 2021.
The ALP website retains broad information about its pre-2022 election commitments, including its pledge to lower electricity prices by $275 by this year.
But the link to the full analysis by RepuTex diverts to a web page saying “the page you were looking for was not found”.
A spokesman for the ALP said the party refreshed its website for the next election.
“The policies the Albanese government is taking to the 2025 election – including strengthening Medicare, HECS debt relief and making free TAFE permanent – are on the website for all to see,” he said. “Peter Dutton on the other hand is not being transparent about his plan to cut services so he can pay for his $600bn nuclear power scheme.
“He’s actually said we’ll only find out what he intends to cut after the election.
“The choice at this election is clear: Labor’s plan to keep building or Peter Dutton’s plan to cut everything.”
The federal government has not backed away from its pre-election climate modelling, while the Prime Minister and Energy Minister Chris Bowen have refused to concede Labor will fail to meet its pre-election pledge to lower electricity prices by $275.
After recently telling a podcast that the renewable energy transition was his “obsession”, the Treasurer on Monday would not promise that electricity prices would fall in the next term of government under Labor’s policies.
Turning the heat on the Coalition’s plan, Dr Chalmers said introducing nuclear energy and keeping “unreliable” coal online for longer would further increase electricity bills. “The worst thing we could do for electricity prices is to keep the unreliable parts of the system for so long while we wait for nuclear reactors to be built. Nuclear reactors would push electricity prices higher; they’re the most expensive form of new energy,” he said.
“We want to get more cheaper and cleaner energy into the system.”
The Australian Energy Market Commission last November predicted electricity prices would fall by 13 per cent over the next decade – lower than the 26 per cent by 2030 Labor projected in its pre-election modelling – if the renewables rollout “proceeds as expected”.
With experts doubting the Coalition’s plan would lower energy prices, opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien did not promise prices would be lower under a Dutton government but he said the Coalition had a “strong record of getting prices down” and would reduce bills by bringing more gas into the market and ensuring coal generators did not close too early.
Mr O’Brien said Labor was in “full-blown cover-up mode on power prices, and Australians are paying the price”.
“First, Labor quietly scrubbed their ‘Powering Australia’ modelling from their website. Now Jim Chalmers refuses to guarantee that power bills will be lower under Labor in the next term of government,” he said.
“That’s because he knows the truth – Labor’s all-eggs-in-one-basket renewables-only approach has been an unmitigated disaster and is pushing Australian households and small businesses to the wall.”
Renewables groups are expected to campaign against the Coalition’s energy plan at the election, with the Clean Energy Council claiming household bills will be 30 per cent more expensive if there was a slowdown in rolling out wind and solar generation.